Dive Brief:
- States in the South, New England and the Pacific Northwest have had a higher rate of residents moving in than moving out over the past year, according to Evansville, Indiana-based moving company Atlas Van Lines’ annual migration patterns study.
- Hawaii is the most active state for inbound moves, accounting for 77% of Atlas Van Lines’ business in the state last year. This marks a departure from historic trends, where move in/out traffic in Hawaii was relatively balanced.
- In the continental United States, Maine, North Carolina and New Hampshire are the top inbound moving targets, each at 60% or higher. While Maine and North Carolina have been consistently popular destinations over the last several years, New Hampshire jumped to third place in 2023 from 10th place in 2022.
Dive Insight:
U.S. domestic migration, which has been heavily affected over the past several years by the onset and aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, began returning to regular historical patterns over the course of 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Many urban residents moved out of cities and into suburban markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, seeking more space and a lower cost of living. In 2021, net domestic migration for the nation’s most populous counties fell in almost every region, while migration to less populous counties rose significantly, well above historic trends in 2019.
However, in 2022, that trend began to reverse. Migration to less populous counties fell significantly, according to the Census. At the same time, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and the Carolinas saw notable population growth.
The South accounted for the majority — 87% — of the country’s population growth in 2023, with a net migration of 1.4 million new residents, of which over 700,000 were domestic. It was the only U.S. region to maintain population growth throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Midwest and West have both seen modest gains, while the Northeast’s population has fallen 0.1%.
Top 10 states for inbound/outbound moves in the continental U.S.
| Inbound | Outbound |
|---|---|
| 1. Maine | 1. Illinois |
| 2. North Carolina | 2. Pennsylvania |
| 3. New Hampshire | 3. Louisiana |
| 4. Montana | 4. Minnesota |
| 5. Washington | 5. Indiana |
| 6. Arkansas | 6. Oregon |
| 7. Florida | 7. Iowa |
| 8. New Mexico | 8. Mississippi |
| 9. District of Columbia | 9. New York |
| 10. Texas | 10. Ohio |
SOURCE: Atlas Van Lines
Over the last 10 years, North Carolina and Washington state have seen more inbound than outbound moves, while Indiana, Illinois and New York have consistently had higher outbound traffic each year.
Illinois and Pennsylvania were tied for the highest share of outbound moves in 2023 at 63%. Many of the states where more than 55% of residents moved out are concentrated in the Midwest.
Hot multifamily markets
While Atlas Van Lines’ data set covers the entire spectrum of moves, single-family and multifamily alike, another way to examine hot multifamily markets is by competition for available units from incoming renters. Many of the most competitive locales are major metropolitan areas within states where outmigration has fallen since 2021, though there are exceptions.
The most competitive market in the nation, according to RealPage data, is Miami-Dade County in Florida, a predominantly inbound state according to Atlas Van Lines. The market has a 97% occupancy rate and 25 prospective renters for each of its vacant units on average.
The second most competitive, Milwaukee, is in Wisconsin, a predominantly outbound state in the Midwest, with 16 prospective renters per vacant unit and a 96% occupancy rate.
